At COP28 last year, 25 countries committed to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050, implying an addition of 740 GWe to the current reactor stock of around 370 GWe globally. This eye-catching figure is a stretch target by any measure, and one which will surely not be reached unless governments, the nuclear sector and investors can up their game and pump out project after project to time and cost.
A few things have occurred this month which might make us reflect on how much we have to stretch.
Start-up of Flamanville 3
At the start of September, we saw EDF’s announcement of the first start-up of its Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor, on the Normandy coast, with full connection to the grid planned for the autumn. As nuclear followers will know, this is long after the original planned grid connection date, with project, design and material issues all contributing to a 12-year delay in completion and at least a tripling in budget. Flamanville 3 is an EPR, the largest reactor type in the world with a 1.6 GWe output; despite this, meeting the COP28 aspiration with large reactors such as EPRs would need new capacity equivalent to some 460 Flamanville 3s, implying a build rate over 200 times faster, maintained over 25 years, than that seen in Normandy.
UAE’s Barakah programme
Perhaps more optimistically, this month also marked the start of full commercial operation for Barakah 4, the last in the series of four 1.4 GWe Korean APR1400 nuclear plants built in the United Arab Emirates to provide some 25% of the UAE’s electricity supply. Since the start of construction of Barakah 1 in 2012, each plant has taken less than eight years from the first concrete to fuel load, an impressive achievement for a country’s first nuclear programme. The Barakah programme is often cited as a ‘good one’, illustrating what can be done once a build programme gets into its stride and is able to replicate project learning efficiently over multiple build cycles. But even so, reaching the COP28 target with a ‘Barakah build’ would require a build rate just over 60 times faster than was achieved here.
Sweating the assets in USA
Reaching the target could be made easier by making the most of existing assets. At the start of the month, the US Department of Energy released a preliminary report suggesting that around 60-95 GWe of new nuclear capacity could potentially be built at operating or recently retired nuclear sites around the US. Additionally, a potential 128 – 174 GWe of nuclear capacity could be back fitted at coal-powered plants.
On 20 September, Constellation, a large US utility, announced its intention to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1 in Pennsylvania, which had been shut down as uneconomic in 2019, some forty years after the accident and meltdown of its twin TMI-2. The restart of TMI-1 by 2028 is backed by a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft to support the growth in energy-hungry data centre power requirements, something for which nuclear power is well-suited. Holtec International continued its plans in Michigan to restart the Palisades nuclear plant, which was closed in 2022 after 50 years of operation.
Once restarted, these two plants would add an equivalent output of one Flamanville 3 back to the US grid.
More news on SMRs
Holtec was also in the news this month in the UK, where it announced the selection of a South Yorkshire location for its UK SMR factory, where the firm will reportedly manufacture 2 – 4 SMRs per year as well as large naval nuclear components. The Holtec SMR-300 is one of four designs in the UK government’s SMR competition to select two preferred types of small modular reactor for deployment in the UK from 2030 (Holtec also wants to build two SMR-300s at Palisades).
Holtec’s decision comes four months after Rolls Royce SMR, also in the SMR competition, similarly chose South Yorkshire for their prototype assembly site. With – as yet – no operational SMRs in the Western world, it is impossible to forecast to what degree this reactor technology could contribute to the COP28 target. The OECD has postulated what it called an ‘ambitious’ model with SMR growth supplying around one-third of the total COP28 additional nuclear capacity between 2035 and 2050; at a rough approximation that would require, for example, 55 Holtec SMR-300s or similar to be produced each year, or maybe 20 SMR factories around the world.
Can we pay for this?
Finally, and probably the most important announcement of this month, was at the start of New Yorks’ Climate Week, where fourteen international financial institutions stated their recognition of the importance that nuclear power projects have to play in the transition to a net-zero economy. That extra 740 GWe is going to need a lot of capital and, while the statement contained no detail, the mere fact that it was made at all, at a high-profile event, was an important signal.
So September has been an interesting month for a variety of relevant nuclear announcements and a welcome addition of 1.4 GWe of nuclear power from Barakah-1. We look forward to many more, and Prospect Law stands ready to support the nuclear sector in reaching its lofty but essential goals.
With another 738.6 GWe of capacity required by 2050, there is still much to do.
John Warden
John Warden brings 35 years of experience in the nuclear and defence sectors to Prospect Law. He specialises in nuclear reactor project structure and financing, implementation of nuclear technologies, and strategies to meet climate goals using nuclear power. He is increasingly active in the field of advanced nuclear technology, where he advises on the economics and feasibility of deploying small modular reactors and advanced nuclear technology.
Contact John to arrange a call.
